Android’s Growth Rate and How It Actually Hurts The App Market
By: Hillel Fuld
I feel everywhere I look people are having the old iPhone Vs. Android debate. Granted I am mostly looking in very geeky places, but still, this is a pretty common discussion in my circles. Before the announcement of iPhone 4, many thought Android was going to take the lead soon and some believed it already had when it came to technology and specs.
As I wrote in an earlier piece, one of the reasons Android numbers were growing faster than the iPhone in the last two months is because of the iPhone 4. People were not buying new iPhones when they know a new one is coming out any minute.
Android on the other hand, as Mashable reported yesterday, is selling handsets faster than they can be manufactured. Now, that is impressive, but while Android phones are going viral, their popularity is starting to cause a serious problem for the App Market and the Android developer community.
Everyone has heard people complaining about Apple’s closed ecosystem and praising Android for its openness, but there is another side to that coin. While Apple has one mobile device that makes use of its OS, Android’s code is open to anyone who wants to snatch it. This is great for Android numbers since almost all major phone manufacturers can now focus their resources on developing good hardware and simply depend on Android for the software. Hence the 65 thousand Android phones being sold daily.
However, with all these phones, such as the Nexus (3.7 inch screen), the Droid (480 x 854 screen), the HTC Evo 4G (4.3 inch screen), the Dell Streak (5 inch screen), and many many more, each with its own unique feature set, how is a developer expected to make an Android app? Which phone should he/she make it for? What processor should they optimize their app to work with? What kind of resolution should they assume their users will have? It is impossible for developers to have one app that works on all Android phones.
In fact, I will go one step further. Forget the phones’ specs for a second, Android itself has so many versions that developers do not even know which Android to develop for. While the assumption is that the newest version of Android is the one most worth counting on, there are many devices out there that cannot get the upgrade to 2.1 and eventually 2.2. This brings the Android fragmentation problem to a whole new level.
Now, as annoying as Apple’s app approval process is, and as frustrated as I am by Apple’s jail-like mentality when it comes to customizing their OS, there is something to be said for having consistency. Consistency in the App Store, consistency in the way the phone interacts with apps, and consistency in the overall experience. Have you ever tried Android 1.6 on a Samsung Galaxy then spent two minutes playing with a Nexus? If you have, you know what I mean, they feel like two completely different operating systems.
Now, I know Apple has different versions of iOS as well, but the iPhone has and will most likely always have a 3.5 inch screen. That was one of the things people complained about with the iPhone 4, that Apple did not increase the size of the display, and I personally think these people are nuts, while Apple made a smart decision on that one. More capacity, better connectivity, and regular video calling (to all phones) is a different story, but that is another discussion.
Android is taking off and there is no debating that. However, as more and more devices are introduced and each one looks and acts differently, Google is going to HAVE to come up with a strategy to make some order. I am thinking tabs in the Market for different screen sizes or something along those lines. As it is, the Market is a mess with more app add ons then apps itself and no way to filter them out, but if we continue down this road, the Market will become unusable and fast.
So what do you think of this issue? Do you think I am overreacting here and Android does not have to worry about this issue or are you a fan of the neat and closed experience Apple provides? Would like to hear your thoughts in the comments.
Hillel Fuld
Hillel is a tech blogger at TechNmarketing.com as well as an active Twitter personality @hilzfuld. He writes for many other sites including Mashable.com, Bitrebels.com, and works as the Content Manager of Dailyforex.com.27 Comments to “Android’s Growth Rate and How It Actually Hurts The App Market”
Leave a Reply
Just one thing, when you say that the Android sold more because people were waiting to buy the Iphone 4, that’s not correct. iphone had it’s best quarter EVER in the quarter that Android outsold it. There was no slowdown in sales.
OK then I stand corrected, I guess it was one of the other reasons I wrote here: http://blog.appboy.com/2010/05/4-reasons-android-just-surpassed-iphone-in-sales/
I can definitely see where that would be a problem — if you don’t know what to target, you have to pick an audience and ignore the rest. There’s a similar situation brewing on the iPhone front with the 3D capabilities — if you want your app to keep up with the technologies (both in terms of shaders and poly counts) of the iPad and iPhone 4 (and even the 3GS) and you’re using something like Unity 3D, you have to make some decisions or at least a couple of different sets of graphics. My game is going through those growing pains now where we’re redoing most of the scenery before the game was even released, because 9 months ago when we were planning and starting, it was iPhone, iPhone 3G or 3GS. Adding the iPad and iPhone 4 (and now also targeting desktop browsers), it was going to look REALLY bad on the latter 3 if we didn’t go back and revamp everything. It’s all part of the game of keeping up, I suppose.
PC comes in different specs, different versions of Windows operating systems, different sizes of monitors etc.
I don’t see why PC/windows developers should be bothered. Why Android developer should?
“It is impossible for developers to have one app that works on all Android phones.”
It may be impossible, luckily developers don’t have to develop one-fit-all app especially when the market is big enough and growing fast?
Or am I missing something here?
There is one App Market James, and you would not download something to your Windows XP machine that only works on Vista, but with the single Android Market, this is confusing and messy…
You do know that the Android Market filters out applications that won’t run on a given device, right? There’s nothing confusing or messy about it.
So the problem isn’t that it’s possible to have some software that will not run on your hardware, but that it’s tricky to tell what software will run on your hardware? Isn’t this a mostly solved problem already? When I go looking for software for my PC, I check the operating system and hardware requirements to ensure it will run. Can we not just do the same thing when getting a software programme for a phone?
I hate to be so harsh but this reeks of FUD. Now part of me understands why, but I can’t pretend to agree with it.
First of all, the biggest glaring issue with your analysis is that with the inclusion of iOS 4 and the iPhone 4, iDevices will have a similar fragmentation problem (if you will) that developers will have to contend with. As it was mentioned in a comment by Greg Dunn, games and 3D apps are going to be one that really polarizes the App Store. But there are other things, like the iPhone 2G won’t be getting iOS 4 and subsequently adds a rift in what apps can work on it if they focus on iOS 4 features. This is even a problem for the iPhone 3G that is getting the upgrade to iOS 4 but wont have features like ‘multitasking’ which is again just another thing to account for in different versions.
Now admittedly, there are less to deal with on the iDevices side, it is just as much of a problem, and probably more sore because there are more older iDevices than there are Android at this point. Then you have to count the iPad which throws a loop into it. Apple is handling the SDK stuff pretty well, but its going to be an issue just like it is for Android devices.
The other issue with your article is that you ignore all the efforts Google has done and continues to do to make developers jobs easier when accounting for the multiple devices. Newer versions of the Android SDK have code in place to handle variations in screen resolution/size. You can easily make an app in the newest SDK for the oldest version of Android (1.5) and it will work, although a lot of features may be missing. Google is working hard to make sure this problem isn’t as much of a problem in the future, and as the time between major releases slows down, this will mean the amount of versions out there are less over time.
Another thing to keep in mind, the amount of Android handsets is very little, especially the older <2.0 versions. Most if not all newer handsets have been upgraded to 2.1 or are getting 2.2. Even some older phones like the T-Mobile MyTouch 3G and the new MyTouch 3G Slide are getting 2.2. So the majority of phones out there, like the Evo 4G will be on the bleeding edge and keep up with the pack for years to come. So the pool of different Android versions overwhelmingly is filled with handsets of 2.1 or better. Ultimately, this is a non-issue, or at most, as much of an issue as it is for iOS developers.
Has this guy actually developed any Android apps? This whole “fragmentation” thing that’s getting batted around in the press is a major red herring. If you want to see some *real* fragmentation, go look at blackberries or feature phones.
Don’t forget that Verizon has basically been handing out Android devices with their buy one get one free offers. They’re taking a huge loss just to get more handsets out there. Google + Verizon = Microsoft all over again.
Hillel, developing for Android is not in as dire a state as you make it out to be.
For most apps, developers don’t have to worry about the hardware manufacturer. They don’t have to worry about screen resolution either. They don’t have to worry about the Android version. The only consideration about the version is to determine the minimum version supported, which is either 1.5 and up or 2.0 and up, depending on what features your app needs. The app is scaled for higher-density screens (Droid, Nexus, etc.) though the graphics don’t look sharp when scaled. So it works from the beginning, then you can put a little time into supporting higher res screens by creating a new batch of graphics for the higher res display.
I wrote a few apps and all in all I treat it as one platform, or phone, or whatever you want to call it, with very little consideration to the os version, device manufacturer, or os flavor (regular, SenseUI, etc).
I did write one camera app and I’ll admit that is very fragmented: by os version, by phone manufacturer, by device within one manufacturer (I hate you Samsung), and finally by root-kit.
It is my understanding that a developer specifies which version of Android they are developing for. So if you are running 1.6 you wouldn’t see the apps developed for 2.1. However they are backwards compatible, so any 1.6 developed apps will work with 1.6+. I have the HTC Hero and couldnt see Google Goggles or the official Twitter app in the market when they were released. Once 2.1 was released, I could.
The downside to developing for the older versions of Android is that you cannot take advantage of the newer features. If you don’t need live wallpapers (or other 2.1 features) in your app, you can develop for 1.6 and hit more of the market.
@Hillel Fuld: Well, too bad that you don’t know how to use your phone. There is an option that allows you to install apps not from official source. Why don’t you turn that on, and realize that your phone is a total capable PC-alternative? As such, let’s face it, the capability is much more diverse (because it is PERSONAL, and no person is the same as any other person) than yet-another-stupid-toy.
Note: I do agree that the market should also have a small check for compatibility, at least about version of Android and processing power of the device. Oh well.
@Erin: Before speaking, please check stuffs out. Android is released under open-source license. You know what is going on with the system, to start with. You have option to buy stuffs outside of Verizon and still have basically the same thing. You can recompile the OS and reinstall it (at your own risk, obviously) with modification. I challenge you to do any of these things with a Windows machine.
About the whole thing: it’s not that there is no control in Android (there always is), it’s about HOW MUCH control you have to live under. I would say that Android is a good compromise, between things like OpenMoko (too difficult to use) and iPhone (a phone belongs to Steve Jobs that I rent until its battery is dead).
Epic typo.
‘Hence the 65 million Android phones being sold daily.’
Let’s see – that would be 23.79 billion phones a year.
Thats around 4 each for every man, woman, child and their dog.
So in one day, Android sells more or less what has taken Apple three years….
I don’t think so.
Also, there’s extensive support in the Android SDK for different screen sizes with no developer recoding required. You should check it out–your opinion would be a lot more compelling if there weren’t so many technical details wrong with this piece.
“There is one App Market James, and you would not download something to your Windows XP machine that only works on Vista,”
Just as PC’s come with minimum specs (Win XP, 1 Ghz Pentium class processor, etc.), it sounds like apps should also list their minimum specs as well. (Perhaps they do–I don’t own either an iphone or a droid phone).
Historically, phones have been tightly controlled by the phone companies, and now, Apple, so the interface has been very consistent. But just as people came to accept that there is a cacaphony of hardware and that not every app would run on their old laptop, the same will become true of phones as well.
While I appreciate the level-headed tone of your article, I cringe just a little every time I hear someone mention Android fragmentation. While there are certainly some scenarios where the users of a 1.6 Android device will be left out of some excellent new software, very few of the best-of-the-best applications require the latest and greatest. Programming for multiple screen resolutions really isn’t a big deal at all (I’m an Android developer). Additionally, the iPhone OS device market (iPhones, iPads, and iPod Touches) is now nearly as “fragmented” as that of Android’s.
Very few applications absolutely need the functionality included only in bleeding-edge devices. For development purposes I keep a 1.6 G1 and a 2.1 DROID on-hand at all times, and apart from the fact that the DROID hardware is vastly superior, there is very little that the G1 can’t do.
“PC comes in different specs, different versions of Windows operating systems, different sizes of monitors etc.”
How many small to very small App developers do you see in the PC world who make money off their software on the PC? Other than MS and a few software big boys, you can probably count on your hand the small App developers for the PC that have made any substantial money.
Somehow – many dont get it that Apple is not only Consumer-focused with the iOS but also “Non-Geek Developer” focused. They are out to make sure that developers dont loose out by fragmentation, flash apps duplicating iOS apps, virus, piracy and upgrade issues. The small non-geek developers love Apple and the iOS.
Android “consumers” will keep sprouting the “open source is better” mantra as long as they are not developers. Nothing is really “free” or “open” in this world – get over it. Android will amuse the true “geeks” and those without disposable income – but the mass market of consumers who expect a phone to “just work” will stick with the iOS.
Saying that Andriod vs iOS is Google vs Apple is a diversionary tactic by Google and the hardware makers. The Android market is in the hands of the mobile phone companies and the phone hardware makers. If I had to choose between Verizon, Motorola and HTC Vs Apple to control the destiny of the OS on which I develop, I will gladly choose Apple.
ViNo
PS. Download the Alice in Wonderland App on your iPad and you’ll see why non-geek developers love the iOS.
Olivier-
Apple having its best quarter selling iPhones ever does not mean that there were no people delaying their purchase in order to buy an iPhone 4. One could only draw that conclusion if one had sales data for the new iPhone and saw no jump in sales.
Wow, people are passionate about their devices and software. That’s fantastic. One of the things that is very easy to lose sight of in these discussions is ease of use for the end consumer.
I’ll give you a couple of examples. I know people who will likely never download an app (or if they do, someone else will do it for them). They browse the web, check stuff out, use their phone to make calls (does anyone do that anymore?) and may take advantage of some of the other features. For this consumer, it doesn’t matter which version of Android OS (or iPhone OS, Symbian, Palm, BlackBerry….) they are running, as long as they can get on to the web, get email and make calls they’re happy.
We have other users who may be more interested in apps, perhaps little games to bide their time, productivity boosters, business aides, etc. They don’t know which version of the OS they’re running, if they go to download a new app and it states that it will only run on a certain OS, most of them wouldn’t know where to find that information.
Then there are those of us who are speaking our minds here. We love our smartphones, for many of us they are a primary computing device, apps are nearly essential (I say nearly because many mobile web apps could do some of the really critical tasks if needed) and we all have a very strong opinion of what’s best.
The iPhone and Android have polarized us, but at the end of the day, if you’re happy with your phone, isn’t that enough? I am an iPhone user, I like what my phone is capable of, I understand it (to the depth that I need for my day to day) and it works for me. I’ve used Android devices, they’re good to. Do I think that everyone should use an iPhone because I do? Absolutely not. Do I think the iPhone is the best phone in the world? Nope.
There are flaws in all the systems, and the reality is we are never going to see a perfect phone or mobile OS, just as we have never seen a perfect desktop computing OS. There will continually be advances, innovation will come from all sides, some will love certain phones or operating systems, others will willingly switch back and forth.
I’m just thankful I’m not stuck using this:
http://www.phonesreview.co.uk/2008/03/26/history-motorola-dynatac-8000x-was-the-first-ever-handheld-mobile-phone/
The issue I believe is android users expect open apps in other words free apps.
So where do the developers stand financially?
One more thing, good luck to the developers.
As others have mentioned, both OSs are very good. The thing that worries me is that a buddy of mine bought a Sony phone recently and mentioned he had Android 1.6 on it… My reply was “what? aren’t they at 2.1 or 2.2?”. Apparently it has a GUI layer custom to that phone. Sony will eventually upgrade to 2.2. Am I the only one who sees danger in that? That is what I hated of the past. It appears telcos may be starting to “customize” as well (see Rogers Social thing). Same phone but “customized” for a given telco. Hardware aside, the OS should be uniform and upgradeable. Just a thought.
Just a quick thank you to all of you for commenting, happy to see the post evoked such emotion and debate…
As an Android developer i must say that there is no issues if you don’t plan to use any device specific feature …
I’m only concern about the upgrade rate, which depends on telcos
[...] Die Android-Plattform, die auf vielen verschiedenen Modellen mit unterschiedlichen Ausstattungen und Display-Größen vertreten ist und zusätzlich noch mit unterschiedlichen OS-Versionen auf den Geräten zu kämpfen hat, wird stark von Fragmentierung bestimmt. Das ist ein Problem für das App-Ökosystem: [...]
[...] Reasons Android Just Surpassed iPhone in SalesThree iPhone 4 DisappointmentsAndroid's Growth Rate and How It Actually Hurts The App MarketFive Fundamental Flaws of The iPad5 Features that Would Have Truly Made the iPad A "Magical" Device6 [...]
[...] the experience. Now, if you have read my writing, chances are you have come across my thoughts on Android fragmentation, but he was talking like Android is a failure of a platform. He did not even address the Android [...]