Smartphones to Kill Desktops within Three Years, According to Google

By: Hillel Fuld

Anyone who spends significant time online surfing the Web or socializing on the various social platforms will surely have noticed that the mobile space is heating up. A simple Twitter search for the word “iPhone” or “Nexus” will give you a clear picture of how much interest the mobile market sparks. The thing is, unlike many other trends, the mobile market is showing no signs of slowing down. On the contrary, the latest predictions are indicating that the mobile industry is on route to make some pretty impressive numbers over the next few years.

John Herlihy, the European director of Google stated recently, that not only is the mobile market growing, but within three years time, as mobile devices evolve and improve, desktops will become extinct. According to Herlihy, most research in Japan is already conducted on smartphones and not desktop PCs (what phone are these people using??).

Combine that statement with a study recently conducted by Getjar, which concluded that today’s app industry of 7 billion downloads will grow to over 50 billion downloads by 2012.  According to Chetan Sharma Consulting, who conducted this research, the mobile app industry will be worth a whopping 17 billion dollars by 2012. Now there are some impressive numbers.

Ilja Laurs, Getjar’s CEO, also backed up the Google claim stating that he too believed that with the expected growth of the mobile space as well as mobile apps, there is no reason mobile will not make desktops a thing of the past. According to Laurs, 17% of Getjar users already spend more time on their Web-enabled smartphones than on desktop PCs.

These numbers are clearly very optimistic for the mobile industry, but the truth be told, they are only going to get more impressive when the iPad hits the market. The pre order numbers of the iPad are nothing short of astounding. I mean, as geeky as I am, I never really saw the point of pre ordering a product. Why not wait till its release and buy it then? Having said that, over 150,000 people disagreed with me, and that is just over the first day or two since the iPad was available.

Between the apps available for the current and next iPhone, the new ones being developed right now for the iPad, and the eBooks, the App Store is going to be showing some pretty impressive numbers over the next few months/years. Android is also catching up quickly, with over 60,000 Android phones sold daily, the App Market now hosts over 30,000 apps, which is not 150 like Apple, but is not a number to be ignored.

BlackBerry might not have the numbers, at least when it comes to apps (they still are the most popular phones in the US), but the latest development or RIM allowing push notifications on all BlackBerry apps, might just enhance the BlackBerry app experience, and bring it to a whole new level.

In addition to all the platforms we hear so much about; iPhone, Android, BlackBerry, Symbian, and Palm, there is one platform no one has paid too much attention to, but must not be ignored, Maemo. I have been using a Nokia N900 for a month now, and besides the phone’s insane multi tasking capabilities, the OS is robust, powerful, and impressive on almost all fronts. The app distribution method is a little different with various sources, such as the OVI store, as well as different repositories, which you add to your phone’s App Manager.

The latest numbers show approximately 1,000 apps available for Maemo, but that number is growing every day, and with big Maemo developments expected in the near future, it is pretty clear Maemo is here to stay and play with the big boys.

In conclusion, I will just say that no one expected the mobile app industry to take off this way, but if you were skeptical about this industry a year or two ago, there is no denying its potential now. In terms of consumers, there needs to be some sort of order in this whole mess called mobile apps, one place users can go to read about the latest developments, hear about the newest apps, communicate with fellow developers, and even submit their own ideas for the next big thing. That is what we are trying to do here with Appboy, and the latest numbers just prove to us once again, that we are a much needed commodity in this overflowing market of mobile applications.

What do you think about the future of mobile and mobile apps? Is it going to take over the desktop or will we still be using our big old computers in two years time? Would love to hear your thoughts in the comments!

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Hillel Fuld

Hillel is a tech blogger at TechNmarketing.com as well as an active Twitter personality @hilzfuld. He writes for many other sites including Mashable.com, Bitrebels.com, and works as the Content Manager of Dailyforex.com.